PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset notably higher this morning, with 5–7bp moves across the curve as market volatility intensifies.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB AM fix: rates up 5–6bp across most maturities, led by the 5–15y sector, as global bond markets react to surging oil prices and Middle East conflict.
PWLB leaps as oil shock and war rattle gilts — 5–6bp jump across curve
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.91% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.08% | +5bp |
| 5y | 5.27% | +6bp |
| 10y | 5.79% | +6bp |
| 25y | 6.40% | +6bp |
| 50y | 6.21% | +5bp |
Parallel upward shift: 5–6bp across most maturities, with the short end lagging slightly.
What Moved
- → Broad-based rise — 5–6bp increases across 3y to 25y, with 1y up 3bp.
- → No material curve twist — Moves are parallel, not driven by specific maturities.
- → Volatility driven by global events — Oil price surge and Middle East conflict dominate.
Context
- → UK GDP (Jan): 0.0% actual vs 0.2% forecast (prev 0.1%). Flat growth, below expectations, but overshadowed by global events.
- → Oil above $100/bbl, Hormuz closed — Newswires report surging energy prices, Middle East conflict, and global inflation fears as the dominant market drivers.
- → UK macro data overshadowed — Domestic releases are being ignored as global bond volatility takes centre stage.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GDP Estimate MM (Jan): 0.0% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%) — Below expectations, but impact on gilts minimal amid global turmoil.
- → GDP Est 3M/3M: 0.2% (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%) — Slightly below forecast, not market-moving today.
Remaining Today
- → 14:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 6.7M (Previous: 6.54M) — US labour data may add to volatility if it surprises.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 18 Mar 18:00: USD Fed Funds Target Rate — Forecast: 3.6%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 5–6bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the 5–25y sector most affected. This is a direct response to the global bond sell-off triggered by the Middle East conflict and oil price surge. Domestic data is being ignored as markets focus on energy and inflation risks. If volatility persists, expect further sharp moves at the next reset.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — cutting through the noise since the yield curve had two humps and a prayer.