PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose across the curve today, leading to modest declines in PWLB rates at all maturities.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
| Tenor | Yield | Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2y | 4.14% | +5bp | Front-end led |
| 10y | 4.83% | +4bp | Broad upward move |
| 20y | 5.44% | +5bp | Belly in line with front |
| 50y | 5.07% | +4bp | Long end follows move |
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 4.89% (-2bp)
- → 5y: 5.25% (-2bp)
- → 10y: 5.77% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.38% (-2bp)
- → 50y: 6.19% (-2bp)
WHAT DROVE TODAY
Today's upward move in gilt yields occurred despite a lack of clear domestic catalysts. UK economic data released this morning was mixed and largely in line with expectations: GDP Estimate MM came in at 0.0% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%), and GDP Est 3M/3M was 0.2% (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%). There was no major surprise in output or trade figures. News flow was dominated by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices remaining elevated and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. However, there was no direct evidence linking these themes to today's gilt moves. US data (JOLTS Job Openings: 6.95M vs 6.7M forecast) and global inflation commentary may have contributed to a firmer tone in global yields.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → PWLB new loan rates ended the day 1–2bp lower across the curve, despite higher underlying gilt yields.
- → The cost of borrowing for local authorities via PWLB remains close to recent highs, with only marginal relief today.
- → The curve remains steep, with long-dated PWLB rates above 6%, reflecting persistent term premium.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Monday 00:01 — GBP House Price Rightmove MM/YY (Medium). Previous: 0.0%
PWLB rates finished modestly lower, but underlying market volatility and geopolitical risk remain elevated.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.