PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have moved modestly higher across all maturities at the AM reset, with changes of +3 to +4bp.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates reset 2–4bp higher this morning, reflecting a parallel upward move across the curve.
PWLB edges up as oil shock keeps gilt yields on the boil
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.92% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.10% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.29% | +4bp |
| 10y | 5.80% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.41% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.22% | +3bp |
Rates have shifted higher in parallel across the curve, with no material steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Parallel upward shift — All key maturities rose by +3 to +4bp, with the 5y point seeing the largest move.
Context
- → Oil market disruption — Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude above $104, sustaining upward pressure on global yields.
- → UK data quiet — Only Rightmove house price data released so far (MM: +0.8%, YY: -0.2%), with no direct impact on gilts.
- → No major macro surprises — No significant UK or US macro data released this morning to challenge the prevailing risk-off, inflation-wary tone.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Rightmove House Price Index MM: Actual +0.8% (Prev 0.0%) — modest monthly rise, not market-moving for gilts.
- → Rightmove House Price Index YY: Actual -0.2% (Prev 0.0%) — annual change remains slightly negative.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 18 Mar 18:00: US Fed Funds Target Rate — Forecast: 3.6%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 2–4bp higher this morning, with the move consistent across short and long maturities. This reflects ongoing global rate pressure from the Middle East oil shock, not a domestic data surprise. If gilt yields remain elevated, expect the next PWLB reset to reflect further market developments. Monitor live gilt screens for any sharp intraday moves ahead of the next fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more oil shocks than a North Sea rig engineer.