PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

13 March 2026 · 11:33 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are little changed to slightly lower across the curve; expect a modest downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 1y: 3.989% (-3bp) — Short end down modestly.
→ 10y: 4.767% (-2bp) — Belly slightly lower.
→ 30y: 5.434% (-3bp) — Long end also modestly down.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 4.89% (-2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.26% (-1bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.77% (-2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.30% (-2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.39% (-2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.19% (-2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK GDP (Jan): 0.0% actual vs 0.2% forecast (prev 0.1%) — Flat growth, below expectations; typically supportive for gilts.
→ Newsflow dominated by Middle East conflict and oil above $100 — Market focus remains on geopolitical risks and energy prices.
→ No single clear driver in today's inputs; moves are modest and curve is steady.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ GDP Estimate MM — 0.0% actual vs 0.2% forecast (prev 0.1%) — (MEDIUM) — Flat growth, below consensus; typically supportive for gilts.
→ GDP Est 3M/3M — 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast (prev 0.1%) — (MEDIUM) — Slightly below expectations; signals subdued momentum.
→ Services MM — 0.0% actual vs 0.2% forecast (prev 0.2%) — (MEDIUM) — Services stagnated; no growth in key sector.
→ Manufacturing Output YY — 1.3% actual vs 1.5% forecast (prev 0.5%) — (MEDIUM) — Slightly below forecast, but improved from previous.
→ Industrial Output YY — 0.4% actual vs 0.6% forecast (prev 0.5%) — (MEDIUM) — Slight miss, but broadly stable.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 14:00 — USD JOLTS Job Openings — Forecast: 6.7M — Unlikely to affect PWLB reset unless a major surprise.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Wed 10:00 — EUR HICP Final YY — Forecast: 1.9%
→ Wed 18:00 — USD Fed Funds Tgt Rate — Forecast: 3.6%

Curve is steady, with only minor downward moves; no sign of market stress at this point.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of the world were as calm as the gilt curve this morning.