Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are lower across all key maturities this morning; expect a downward shift in PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset if these levels hold.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.071% (-7bp) — Front end lower, reflecting risk-off tone.
• → 10y: 4.766% (-6bp) — Belly down, mirroring global bond rally.
• → 30y: 5.442% (-6bp) — Long end also lower, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.89% (-3bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.26% (-3bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.77% (-3bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.32% (-2bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.41% (-2bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.20% (-2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → Ongoing Middle East conflict and oil supply disruption are dominating headlines, driving a risk-off move into gilts and other core bonds.
• → No significant UK data releases so far today; market moves are headline-driven.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → GBP House Price Rightmove MM — Actual: 0.8% vs Previous: 0.0% (MEDIUM) — Not a major market mover for gilts.
• → GBP House Price Rightmove YY — Actual: -0.2% vs Previous: 0.0% (MEDIUM) — Not a major market mover for gilts.

Still due today

Nothing further scheduled today.

Next 48 hours

• → Wed 10:00 — EUR HICP Final MM — Forecast: 0.7%
• → Wed 10:00 — EUR HICP Final YY — Forecast: 1.9%
• → Wed 18:00 — USD Fed Funds Tgt Rate — Forecast: 3.6%
• → Thu 07:00 — GBP ILO Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.2%
• → Thu 07:00 — GBP Claimant Count Unem Chng

Markets are firmly focused on geopolitics; check back after the PM reset for confirmation of final rates.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only gilts could talk, they'd probably ask for hazard pay today.