PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — Notable upward move across the PWLB curve at the PM reset, led by front-end and belly tenors, as gilt yields respond to surging energy prices and heightened inflation risk.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:43 PM reset moved 3–4bp higher across short and medium maturities, with smaller gains further out the curve.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.08% (+3bp)
- → 3y: 5.22% (+3bp)
- → 5y: 5.37% (+3bp)
- → 10y: 5.84% (+1bp)
- → 25y: 6.43% (+1bp)
- → 50y: 6.24% (+1bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly — 1y, 3y, and 5y all rose +3bp to +4bp, marking the sharpest moves on the curve.
- → Longer maturities — 10y, 25y, and 50y up by +1bp; 30y and 40y unchanged.
CONTEXT
- → Bank of England held rates at 3.75% — MPC voted unanimously for no change, dropping previous guidance on rate cuts amid inflation risks.
- → Energy prices surged — Oil and gas prices spiked after further attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure, driving market concerns over inflation and supply.
- → UK data mixed — Wage growth slowed to 3.8% (below forecast), unemployment held at 5.2%, and claimant count rose, but market focus remains on inflation and global risks.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 13:15 — ECB Deposit Rate and Refinancing Rate decisions (forecast unchanged at 2.0% and 2.1%).
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (forecast: £8.5bn).
Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and inflation headlines; rate resets are reflecting the volatility in real time.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you blinked, you missed the calm. See you at the next reset.