PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

19 March 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields are sharply higher across the curve (+7bp to +15bp), driven by escalating Middle East conflict and surging energy prices; expect a significant upward reset at 12:30.

Gilt yields are up strongly this morning, pointing to a notable rise in PWLB rates at the next reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.253% (+15bp) — Front end surges on energy shock.
→ 10y: 4.833% (+12bp) — Belly sharply higher, tracking risk-off.
→ 30y: 5.479% (+8bp) — Long end firmer, but less extreme than short.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.07% (+2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.35% (+1bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.83% (unch from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.37% (+2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.45% (+1bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.25% (+2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ Middle East conflict escalation — Multiple reports of attacks on key oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf have triggered a global energy price surge.
→ Oil and gas prices spike — UK and European gas up 25–35% today; Brent crude above $113, raising inflation and rate expectations.
→ Market pricing in higher rates — Newswires cite traders shifting BoE and ECB rate expectations upward ahead of today's decisions.
→ UK data mixed — Unemployment steady at 5.2%, wage growth slows, but global factors are dominating gilt direction.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ Unemployment Rate — 5.20% vs 5.30% (F) vs 5.20% (P) — (MEDIUM) — In line with previous, slightly better than forecast; little direct impact amid global volatility.
→ Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) — 84K vs -4K (F) vs 52K (P) — (MEDIUM) — Stronger than expected, but overshadowed by external events.
→ Average Earnings ex Bonus — 3.80% vs 4.0% (F) vs 4.10% (P) — (LOW) — Wage growth slows more than forecast; reduces domestic inflation pressure.
→ Average Earnings Index +Bonus — 3.90% vs 3.90% (F) vs 4.20% (P) — (MEDIUM) — In line with forecast, down from previous; not the main market focus.
→ Claimant Count Change — 24.7K vs 25.8K (F) vs 4.7K (P) — (MEDIUM) — Slightly better than forecast; impact muted by global developments.

Still due today

→ 12:00 — BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75% — Will set the tone for rates; directly relevant for the 12:30 PWLB reset.
→ 12:00 — BoE MPC vote split, minutes, inflation letter — Forecast: 7 unchanged, 2 cut, 0 hike — Market sensitive; may affect rate expectations.

Next 48 hours

→ Saturday 14:30 (21 Mar) — USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks (HIGH)

A volatile morning for gilts, with global energy shocks firmly in the driving seat; stay alert for further moves around the BoE decision.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re reading this before lunch, you’re already ahead of the curve.