PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have surged across the curve, with 10–18bp increases at all maturities after the AM reset, driven by a sharp jump in gilt yields amid escalating Middle East conflict and energy price spikes.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — PWLB AM rates reset 13–18bp higher across the curve, reflecting a major repricing as global markets react to surging oil and gas prices following attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
PWLB rates leap as energy shock hits gilts: double-digit moves across the board
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.05% | +16bp |
| 3y | 5.19% | +18bp |
| 5y | 5.34% | +17bp |
| 10y | 5.83% | +16bp |
| 25y | 6.42% | +13bp |
| 50y | 6.23% | +13bp |
Parallel shift: all maturities up sharply, with the front and belly leading.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and belly — 1–5y rates jumped 16–18bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates rose 13bp, still a substantial move but less than the short end.
- → Parallel shock — The entire curve repriced higher, with no part spared.
CONTEXT
- → Middle East conflict escalates — Multiple reports confirm Iranian attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, triggering a 25%+ surge in UK gas prices and sharp moves in global energy markets.
- → UK data — Unemployment held at 5.2% (actual: 5.2%, forecast: 5.3%, previous: 5.2%), wage growth slowed to 3.8% (actual, forecast: 4.0%, previous: 4.1%), both slightly below expectations, but overshadowed by global risk-off moves.
- → Market focus — Gilt yields spiked in line with global bonds as energy supply fears and inflation risks dominate.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) — Actual: 3.8% (Forecast: 4.0%, Previous: 4.1%). Slightly weaker than expected, but impact swamped by global events.
- → ILO Unemployment Rate — Actual: 5.2% (Forecast: 5.3%, Previous: 5.2%). In line with previous, marginally better than forecast.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 12:00 — BOE Bank Rate decision (Forecast: 3.8%)
- → 12:00 — BOE MPC Vote Cut (Forecast: 2), Unchanged (Forecast: 7)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 19 Mar 12:00: BOE Bank Rate — Forecast: 3.8%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This is a major repricing: PWLB rates are up 13–18bp across all maturities at the AM reset, with the front end hit hardest. The move is driven by a global surge in energy prices and risk-off sentiment after missile attacks on key Gulf gas infrastructure. If you are watching for the next reset, be aware that current market volatility is extreme and rate direction will be dictated by further geopolitical headlines and the Bank of England’s decision at noon. Do not assume this is the ceiling—conditions remain highly fluid.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — when the market panics, I keep my tie straight and my numbers sharper.