Afternoon Rate Update

PWLB fixed rates at the 12:34 PM reset dropped 7–15bp across the curve, led by the front end, as global markets responded to news of postponed US strikes on Iran and a retreat in oil prices.

PWLB PM SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 5.33% (-15bp)
• → 3y: 5.46% (-13bp)
• → 5y: 5.57% (-10bp)
• → 10y: 5.98% (-8bp)
• → 25y: 6.53% (-4bp)
• → 50y: 6.34% (-4bp)

WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING

• → Front end leads the move — 1y and 3y rates fell sharply (-15bp, -13bp), with 5y down -10bp.
• → Belly and long end lower — 10y down -8bp, 25y and 50y both -4bp.
• → Curve flattens — Larger moves at the short end compress the curve.

CONTEXT

• → Geopolitical de-escalation — Reports confirm President Trump postponed US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, prompting a sharp drop in global oil prices and a rally in government bonds.
• → Market reaction — Newswires highlight a surge in Treasuries and gilts, with UK short-term borrowing costs reversing part of this month’s spike.
• → No major UK data released yet — No calendar releases so far today; moves are news-driven.

LOOK AHEAD

• → 15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Flash — Forecast: -14.4 (HIGH impact; may influence broader risk sentiment).
• → Tomorrow 09:30: GBP Flash Composite PMI — Forecast: 52.9 (MEDIUM impact; first read on UK March activity).
• → Tomorrow 09:30: GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 50.1 (MEDIUM).
• → Tomorrow 09:30: GBP Flash Services PMI — Forecast: 53.0 (MEDIUM).

A volatile session, with the PM PWLB reset reflecting a rapid repricing as markets digest shifting geopolitical risk. Stay alert for further moves as event risk remains high.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the market moved this fast when you’re waiting for committee sign-off.