PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields are sharply lower across the curve (-11bp to -14bp at key long tenors) as markets react to escalating Middle East conflict and energy price shocks; expect a significant downward reset at 12:30.
Gilt yields are down notably this morning, pointing to a substantial drop in PWLB rates at the upcoming PM reset.
Gilts Snapshot
- → 1y: 4.398% (-11bp) — Front-end sharply lower.
- → 10y: 4.941% (-4bp) — Belly lower, but less extreme than wings.
- → 20y: 5.402% (-14bp) — Long end sees largest fall.
PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions
- → 1y: predicted 5.28% (-20bp from current)
- → 5y: predicted 5.55% (-12bp from current)
- → 10y: predicted 5.95% (-12bp from current)
- → 20y: predicted 6.34% (-18bp from current)
- → 30y: predicted 6.50% (-8bp from current)
- → 50y: predicted 6.24% (-14bp from current)
What's Driving This
- → Escalating Middle East conflict — News flow dominated by US-Iran tensions, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and energy price spikes.
- → Sharp moves in global risk assets — Reports of equity, bond, and commodity selloffs as markets digest heightened geopolitical risk.
- → No UK data releases today — Moves are entirely news-driven, with no domestic economic data reported so far.
Calendar
Releases So Far Today
No data released so far today.
Still Due Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 13:45: USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 51 (HIGH)
- → Tue 13:45: USD S&P Global Services PMI — Forecast: 51.7 (HIGH)
Markets are moving fast; check official PWLB rates at reset for confirmation.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you blinked, you missed another 10bp. Stay sharp.