PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have surged across the curve, with double-digit increases at all maturities following a sharp gilt selloff amid escalating Middle East tensions.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates jumped 11–16bp across the curve, tracking a major gilt selloff driven by intensifying geopolitical risk and surging energy prices.
PWLB rates leap as gilts reel from oil shock and war escalation
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.48% | +15bp |
| 3y | 5.59% | +16bp |
| 5y | 5.67% | +15bp |
| 10y | 6.06% | +14bp |
| 25y | 6.57% | +11bp |
| 50y | 6.38% | +11bp |
Parallel shift higher: 11–16bp up across all maturities.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 5y tenors rose 15–16bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates up 11bp, matching the scale of the selloff.
- → No divergence — The curve shift is parallel, with no material flattening or steepening.
CONTEXT
- → Gilt rout deepens — UK government bonds are suffering their worst month since the Truss crisis, as traders price in multiple BoE rate hikes and inflation risks.
- → Middle East escalation — Oil prices have surged above $110/bbl after Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling global inflation fears.
- → No UK data released yet — All eyes remain on macro and geopolitical headlines.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
No data released so far today.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Flash — Forecast: -14.4 (Prev: -12.2)
- → 23:30 GBP CPI MM NSA — Previous: -0.1%
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 25 Mar 07:00: GBP CPI MM — Forecast: 0.4%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning’s PWLB reset delivers a sharp parallel shift higher, with rates up 11–16bp across all maturities. The move is driven by a severe gilt selloff as markets react to surging oil prices and escalating conflict in the Middle East. The front end and belly are hardest hit, but no part of the curve is spared. If you are monitoring live gilt yields, be aware that the next PWLB reset will reflect any further market volatility — and the window for pre-reset borrowing at prior levels has closed.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving faster than rates is the Chancellor’s press secretary.