Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 4.361% (+1bp) — Front end fractionally higher.
• → 10y: 4.904% (unch) — Belly stable.
• → 15y: 5.265% (-3bp) — Slight softening in the long end.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.23% (-1bp) from current
• → 5y: predicted 5.45% (unch) from current
• → 10y: predicted 5.90% (-1bp) from current
• → 20y: predicted 6.40% (-2bp) from current
• → 30y: predicted 6.50% (-1bp) from current
• → 50y: predicted 6.28% (-2bp) from current

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → UK PMIs (Services 51.2, Composite 51.0) — Both below forecast, suggesting softer economic momentum.
• → 10y Gilt Auction — Priced at 4.91% (prior 4.58%), indicating steady demand at current yield levels.
• → News — Ongoing Middle East tensions and volatile oil prices remain in focus, but have not triggered large moves in gilts this morning.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → S&P Global Services PMI — 51.2 vs 52.8 vs 53.9 — (MEDIUM) — Below forecast; signals softer services activity.
• → S&P Global Composite PMI — 51.0 vs 52.8 vs 53.7 — (MEDIUM) — Below forecast; points to weaker overall growth.
• → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — 51.4 vs 50.0 vs 51.7 — (MEDIUM) — Above forecast; manufacturing holding up.

Still due today

• → 13:25 — BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks — No forecast — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

Next 48 hours

• → Wed 07:00 — GBP CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.0% — Key inflation print for UK rates.

PWLB rates look set for only minor tweaks at midday, with the market pausing ahead of tomorrow’s CPI.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you want drama, you’ll have to wait for the inflation numbers.