PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with 5–12bp falls across the curve as gilt yields responded to volatile global energy and macro headlines.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: significant declines across all maturities, driven by a sharp retreat in gilt yields following swings in oil prices and global risk sentiment.
PWLB rates tumble as markets digest oil shock whiplash
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.24% | -9bp |
| 3y | 5.34% | -12bp |
| 5y | 5.45% | -12bp |
| 10y | 5.91% | -7bp |
| 25y | 6.49% | -4bp |
| 50y | 6.30% | -4bp |
Parallel shift lower, with the largest moves in the 2–7y sector.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front and belly — 1–7y rates fell 9–12bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates down 4bp, less pronounced but still notable.
- → Curve shape — Broad parallel shift, but with a steeper drop in short and intermediate maturities.
CONTEXT
- → Oil price volatility — Brent crude swung below and back above $100 as conflicting signals emerged on US-Iran talks and Middle East escalation, driving sharp moves in global bonds.
- → UK PMI data — March flash composite PMI fell to 51.0 (forecast 52.9, prev 53.9), with services and manufacturing both missing expectations, adding to downward pressure on yields.
- → Global risk sentiment — Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with safe-haven demand for gilts evident after Monday's swings.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Flash Composite PMI (Mar): 51.0 (forecast 52.9, prev 53.9) — weaker than expected, likely supporting the drop in yields.
- → Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 51.4 (forecast 50.1, prev 52) — above forecast but down on previous.
- → Flash Services PMI (Mar): 51.2 (forecast 53, prev 53.9) — below expectations, adding to the softer macro tone.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 11:00 — CBI Distributive Trades (LOW, prev -43)
- → 13:45 — US S&P Global Comp PMI Flash (HIGH, prev 52.3)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 25 Mar 07:00: CPI MM — Forecast: 0.4%
- → Wed 25 Mar 07:00: CPI YY — Forecast: 3.0%
- → Wed 25 Mar 07:00: Core CPI MM — Forecast: 0.5%
- → Wed 25 Mar 07:00: Core CPI YY — Forecast: 3.1%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning's PWLB reset delivered a sharp 7–12bp drop across short and intermediate maturities, with the long end down 4bp. The move reflects a rapid repricing in gilts as oil and risk assets swung on US-Iran headlines and softer UK PMI data. If gilt yields continue to react to geopolitical news and tomorrow's CPI, the next reset could be just as lively. For now, today's rates are materially lower than yesterday's close.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — keeping one eye on the curve and the other on the headlines, so you don’t have to.