PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB fixed rates rose 2–5bp across the curve at the PM reset, with the 5–10 year area leading; moves reflect ongoing market reaction to persistent inflation risks and geopolitical tensions.
PWLB PM rates set after 12:19 landed 2–5bp higher across all key maturities, with the largest moves in the 5–10 year sector.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.31% (+2bp)
- → 3y: 5.43% (+4bp)
- → 5y: 5.53% (+5bp)
- → 10y: 5.95% (+4bp)
- → 25y: 6.50% (+4bp)
- → 50y: 6.31% (+4bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end firmer — 1y up +2bp, 3y up +4bp, reflecting a modest upward shift in short gilt yields.
- → Belly leads — 5y up +5bp, 10y up +4bp, marking the largest moves on the curve.
- → Long end follows — 25y and 50y both up +4bp, mirroring the broader upward pressure.
CONTEXT
- → Geopolitical risk — Ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive global inflation concerns and higher yields, with oil prices near $100 and OECD downgrading UK growth and raising inflation forecasts.
- → US data — Today's US initial jobless claims (12:30) are high impact, but no result is yet available; broader market focus remains on inflation and energy shocks.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 00:01 — GfK Consumer Confidence (forecast: -24; previous: -19)
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — Retail Sales MM/YY (medium impact; MM forecast: -0.7%, YY: 2.1%)
Curve is firmer into the close, with inflation and geopolitical headlines keeping rates under pressure. Stay sharp.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as predictable as the PWLB reset.