PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

26 March 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields are sharply higher across the curve (+6 to +11bp), driven by renewed inflation and growth fears linked to the Middle East conflict; expect a significant upward reset at 12:30.

Gilt yields have surged this morning, pointing to a notable increase in PWLB rates at the upcoming PM reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.496% (+8bp) — Front-end up strongly, reflecting short-term inflation risk.
→ 10y: 4.931% (+10bp) — Belly leads the move, largest single-day rise.
→ 30y: 5.532% (+9bp) — Long end also sharply higher, curve remains steep.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.31% (+2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.52% (+4bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.93% (+2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.42% (+2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.49% (+2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.30% (+3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ Middle East conflict — Multiple sources (OECD, FT, Guardian) highlight UK inflation and growth risks from the Iran war, with oil and energy prices surging.
→ OECD downgrade — UK forecast to see the second lowest G7 growth and second highest inflation, reinforcing upward pressure on yields.
→ 30-year Gilt auction — Priced at 5.52% (prev 5.29%), confirming the scale of the move in long-dated yields.
→ UK consumer confidence — BRC survey reports a sharp collapse since the start of the Iran war, underlining the inflation/growth challenge.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ 10:00 — 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — Actual: 5.52% vs Previous: 5.29% — (LOW) — Confirms sharp repricing in long-dated gilts.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 12:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 211K — May influence broader risk sentiment but unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset directly.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Retail Sales (YoY) — Forecast: 2.10%
→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: -0.60%
→ Tue 06:00 — GBP GDP (QoQ/YoY) — Forecast: 1.0% (YoY)

A volatile morning for gilts; treasurers should expect a meaningful upward shift in PWLB rates at the next reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you need a reason for the move, try reading the news backwards. It won't help, but at least it's different.