PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB rates rose 3–4bp across the curve at the PM fix, with 10y, 15y, 20y, 25y, 30y, 40y, and 50y all +4bp; the move tracks a sharp rise in gilt yields amid ongoing market volatility linked to Middle East tensions and inflation concerns.
PWLB PM rates reset higher, with the 10y up +4bp to 6.08% and similar moves across the long end; the curve is steeper, reflecting a fresh leg up in yields as global risk sentiment remains fragile.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.37% (unch)
- → 3y — 5.53% +1bp
- → 5y — 5.65% +3bp
- → 10y — 6.08% +4bp
- → 25y — 6.63% +4bp
- → 50y — 6.44% +4bp
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Long end leads — 10y and all longer tenors up +4bp, with 5y +3bp and shorter maturities less affected.
- → Curve steepens — The move is most pronounced from 10y out, with the front end broadly steady.
CONTEXT
- → Global risk-off — Markets remain volatile as the Iran war drags on, oil prices stay elevated, and central banks warn of persistent inflation risks.
- → UK data — February retail sales fell less than expected (-0.4% m/m vs forecast -0.7%), but consumer confidence remains subdued.
- → US and ECB — Commentary highlights the risk of further rate hikes if inflation persists, with traders now pricing a higher chance of Fed tightening by year-end.
LOOK AHEAD
Diary is light into tomorrow.
A choppy end to the week, with rates higher across the board and little sign of volatility abating as geopolitical and inflation risks persist.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the curve needs a stiff drink after this week.