PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

27 March 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up sharply across the curve (+6bp to +10bp), with the long end leading; market focus remains on geopolitical and inflation risks.

Gilt yields are higher across all key tenors this morning, pointing to a material upward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.605% (+6bp) — Front-end moving higher, short rates under pressure.
→ 10y: 5.080% (+9bp) — Belly of the curve up strongly, reflecting broad risk repricing.
→ 30y: 5.680% (+10bp) — Long end leads, steepening bias evident.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.36% (-1bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.64% (+2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 6.08% (+3bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.57% (+4bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.65% (+4bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.43% (+3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News flow dominated by ongoing Middle East conflict, with multiple headlines on oil price volatility, inflation risks, and global market jitters.
→ UK retail sales for February: -0.4% m/m (vs -0.6% f/c), 2.5% y/y (vs 2.1% f/c) — slightly better than forecast, but not enough to offset global risk concerns.
→ Market commentary highlights persistent inflation fears and uncertainty over energy supply disruptions.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -21 vs Forecast: -24 vs Previous: -19 (Low) — marginally less negative than forecast, limited direct gilt impact.
→ Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual: 2.50% vs Forecast: 2.10% vs Previous: 4.80% (Medium) — above forecast, but decelerating from previous; modest support for growth outlook.
→ Core Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual: 3.40% vs Forecast: 2.90% vs Previous: 5.90% (Medium) — above forecast, but slowing; minor influence amid global drivers.
→ Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual: -0.40% vs Forecast: -0.60% vs Previous: 2.0% (Medium) — better than expected, but still a contraction; not the main market focus today.

Still due today

→ 19:30 — CFTC GBP speculative net positions — no direct impact on the 12:30 reset.

Next 48 hours

→ Tue 06:00 — GBP GDP (QoQ) — Forecast: 0.10%
→ Tue 06:00 — GBP GDP (YoY) — Forecast: 1.0%

A volatile morning for gilts; expect the PWLB reset to reflect these moves sharply at 12:30.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as predictable as the PWLB reset.