PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 5–10bp moves across the curve as markets digest renewed inflation and geopolitical risks.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 6–10bp across all maturities, driven by global inflation concerns and ongoing Middle East tensions.
PWLB rates surge as inflation and war risks jolt gilt yields
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.37% | +6bp |
| 3y | 5.52% | +9bp |
| 5y | 5.62% | +9bp |
| 10y | 6.04% | +9bp |
| 25y | 6.59% | +9bp |
| 50y | 6.40% | +9bp |
Parallel shift higher: all maturities up 6–10bp, with the largest moves in the belly and long end.
WHAT MOVED
- → Belly and long end — 3y to 50y tenors all rose by +9bp, with 12y up +10bp.
- → Front end — 1y up +6bp, lagging the rest of the curve but still a notable move.
CONTEXT
- → UK retail sales (Feb) — -0.4% m/m (forecast: -0.7%, prev: +2.0%). Slightly better than expected, but still a drop after January's rebound.
- → Global inflation and war risk — News flow dominated by warnings of higher oil prices, ongoing Iran conflict, and renewed market volatility, all pushing yields higher.
- → US and European markets — Overnight sell-off in global bonds and equities, with inflation and energy supply concerns front and centre.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → GfK Consumer Confidence — -21 (forecast: -24, prev: -19). Slightly less negative than expected, but still weak.
- → Retail Sales m/m — -0.4% (forecast: -0.7%, prev: +2.0%). Down on the month, but not as weak as feared.
- → Retail Sales y/y — +2.5% (forecast: +2.1%, prev: +4.8%). Growth slowing, but still positive.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Mon 30 Mar 10:00: EUR Consumer Confidence Final — Previous: -12.3
- → Tue 31 Mar 06:00: GBP GDP y/y — Previous: 1.2%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 6–10bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the 10y now at 6.04% and the 25y at 6.59%. The entire curve has shifted sharply higher, reflecting market anxiety over inflation and the Middle East conflict. If you are monitoring live gilt screens, expect the gap to close at the next reset unless volatility persists. This is a material move — review any funding plans accordingly.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — cutting through the noise since the yield curve had two humps and a prayer.