PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates nudged up by 1–3bp across most maturities at the PM reset; long end steady.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:32 reset saw small upward moves at the front and belly, with the long end unchanged or only marginally higher.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.27% (+3bp)
- → 3y — 5.41% (+2bp)
- → 5y — 5.53% (+2bp)
- → 10y — 5.97% (+1bp)
- → 25y — 6.53% (unch)
- → 50y — 6.33% (+1bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end — 1y up +3bp, leading the move.
- → Belly — 3y and 5y both up +2bp; 10y up +1bp.
- → Long end — 25y unchanged; 50y up +1bp.
CONTEXT
- → Middle East conflict — Ongoing Iran war and related oil price surge continue to dominate market sentiment, with multiple headlines citing energy market disruption and inflation risks.
- → UK data — This morning’s releases showed stronger-than-expected consumer credit (£1.9B actual vs £1.6B forecast) and mortgage approvals (62.6K actual vs 61.3K forecast).
- → Global backdrop — Bonds have seen some support as markets weigh growth risks against persistent inflation concerns.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 06:00 — GDP YY (HIGH): forecast 1.0% (prev 1.2%); Current Account (MEDIUM): forecast -23.4B.
- → Tomorrow 06:00 — Nationwide house price indices (MEDIUM): mm forecast -0.1%, yy forecast 0.8%.
A gentle upward drift at the PM fix, with the market still firmly focused on geopolitical risk and tomorrow’s early UK data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you blinked, you missed it. See you at the next reset.