PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields declined across the curve today, leading to flat or slightly lower PWLB rates at most maturities.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 2y: 4.456% (-3bp) — short end modestly lower.
- → 10y: 4.932% (-5bp) — belly led the decline.
- → 30y: 5.544% (-5bp) — long end also moved lower.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.27% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.53% | +2bp |
| 10y | 5.97% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.53% | unch |
| 50y | 6.33% | +1bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → No major UK economic data releases with market-moving impact; morning mortgage and credit data (e.g., Mortgage Approvals Actual: 62.6K vs Forecast: 61K) were stronger than forecast but low impact.
- → Global risk sentiment was influenced by ongoing Middle East tensions and sharply higher oil prices (Brent crude above $116), but UK gilts rallied alongside global government bonds as investors focused on growth risks and central bank commentary.
- → Fed Chair Powell’s remarks highlighted uncertainty over the economic effects of the Iran war and signalled no imminent US rate move, supporting the global bond rally.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → PWLB rates ended the day little changed, with minor increases at the short end and flat to slightly higher levels further out.
- → The gilt rally offset upward pressure from higher oil prices, resulting in stable borrowing costs for most maturities.
- → Borrowing conditions remain broadly unchanged compared to last week, despite ongoing geopolitical volatility.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Tue 06:00: GBP GDP (QoQ) — Forecast: 0.10%
- → Tue 06:00: GBP GDP (YoY) — Forecast: 1.0%
- → Tue 06:00: GBP Business Investment (QoQ) — Forecast: -2.70%
Markets remain focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming UK growth data as the new quarter begins.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.