PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with 5–10bp declines across the curve as markets react to ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: 5–10bp drop across all maturities, driven by a marked rally in gilts amid volatile global risk sentiment and softer UK macro data.
PWLB rates tumble as gilts rally on war and data shocks
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.21% | -6bp |
| 3y | 5.34% | -7bp |
| 5y | 5.45% | -8bp |
| 10y | 5.89% | -8bp |
| 25y | 6.45% | -8bp |
| 50y | 6.23% | -10bp |
Parallel shift lower, with long-end leading (-10bp at 50y).
What moved
- → Long-end leads — 50y drops 10bp, outpacing the rest of the curve.
- → Broad-based declines — All key tenors down 6–10bp, with no segment spared.
- → Curve marginally flattens — Slightly larger moves at the long end.
Context
- → UK GDP (YoY) released at 1.0% — In line with forecast, but down from previous 1.2%, confirming a slowdown.
- → Nationwide house prices (YoY) at 2.2% — Well above forecast (0.8%), suggesting resilience in housing, but overshadowed by global risk-off tone.
- → Geopolitical risk dominates — Ongoing Iran war, oil price volatility, and global equity weakness drive risk aversion and a bid for gilts.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK GDP YoY: 1.0% (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.2%) — Matches expectations, but confirms a deceleration.
- → Nationwide house price YoY: 2.2% (Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.0%) — Stronger than forecast, but not enough to offset wider risk-off moves.
- → UK Current Account: -£18.4bn (Forecast: -£23.4bn, Previous: -£10.7bn) — Deficit narrower than forecast, but still wider than previous.
Remaining Today
- → 14:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast: 6.92M
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 2026-04-01 09:00: EUR Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 6.1%
- → Wed 2026-04-01 12:15: USD ADP National Employment — Forecast: 40K
- → Wed 2026-04-01 12:30: USD Retail Sales MM — Forecast: 0.5%
- → Wed 2026-04-01 14:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 52.5
- → Thu 2026-04-02 12:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 212K
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning’s PWLB reset delivers a broad-based 6–10bp drop, with the long end leading. The most important point: every key maturity is sharply lower, with 50y now at 6.23% (-10bp). The move reflects a global flight to safety as the Iran war escalates and UK data confirms a slowing economy. If gilt yields remain volatile, expect further swings at the next reset—timing execution is critical in these conditions.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every “one-off” shock became the new normal.