PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilts are rallying sharply across the curve (-3bp to -6bp), driven by optimism around a possible near-term end to the Iran war and a global risk-on move.
Gilts are firmer this morning; expect the 12:30 PWLB reset to reflect a notable move lower in rates.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.335% (-4bp) — Front-end rallying, matching global bond strength.
- → 10y: 4.828% (-6bp) — Belly leads, reflecting risk-on and oil relief.
- → 30y: 5.446% (-4bp) — Long end firmer, but less dramatic than the 10y.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- →1y: predicted 5.15% (+2bp from current)
- →5y: predicted 5.36% (unch from current)
- →10y: predicted 5.82% (unch from current)
- →20y: predicted 6.34% (unch from current)
- →30y: predicted 6.42% (unch from current)
- →50y: predicted 6.20% (unch from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- →Global news flow is dominated by optimism that the Iran war could end within weeks, driving a sharp rally in gilts and other government bonds.
- →Oil prices have fallen below $100/barrel, easing inflation and rate expectations.
- →Equities are rallying globally, further supporting risk sentiment and bond demand.
CALENDAR
RELEASES SO FAR TODAY
No data released so far today.
STILL DUE TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.
A clear risk-on shift is driving gilts lower; keep an eye on headlines for any reversal before the PM reset.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every reset landed on a day this lively.