PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have dropped sharply across the curve at the AM reset, with double-digit declines led by the 3–5 year area as gilts rally on Middle East de-escalation hopes.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — PWLB rates reset 8–13bp lower this morning, driven by a sharp gilt rally as markets react to signals of a possible Iran war resolution.
PWLB rates tumble as gilts surge on Middle East peace hopes
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.13% | -11bp |
| 3y | 5.24% | -13bp |
| 5y | 5.36% | -12bp |
| 10y | 5.82% | -10bp |
| 25y | 6.40% | -9bp |
| 50y | 6.20% | -8bp |
Parallel downward shift across the curve, with the largest moves in the 3–5 year sector.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and belly lead — 1y to 5y rates fell 11–13bp, outpacing the long end.
- → Long end follows — 25y and 50y rates dropped 8–9bp, maintaining curve shape.
- → Largest single-day drop in weeks — Moves reflect a broad gilt rally on geopolitical headlines.
CONTEXT
- → Gilts and global bonds rally — Markets surged overnight as President Trump signalled the Iran war could end within weeks, sending oil and yields sharply lower.
- → UK data: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual: 51.0 (Forecast: 51.4, Previous: 51.7). Slightly below expectations, but overshadowed by global risk sentiment.
- → News flow dominated by Middle East de-escalation — Gilt rally is directly linked to hopes of imminent peace and falling oil prices.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → 08:30 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 51.0, Forecast 51.4, Previous 51.7 — Slightly weaker than expected, but not the main driver today.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 12:15 USD ADP National Employment: Forecast 40K
- → 12:30 USD Retail Sales MM: Forecast 0.5%
- → 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 52.5
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 2026-04-02 12:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 212K
- → Fri 2026-04-03 12:30: USD Non-Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 60K
- → Fri 2026-04-03 12:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.4%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have dropped 8–13bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the sharpest falls in the 3–5 year area. This is the largest single-session move in weeks and reflects a broad gilt rally on hopes of Middle East de-escalation. If you are monitoring live gilt pricing, note that the next PWLB reset will capture any further moves as markets digest US data and geopolitical headlines. Stay alert for volatility around the US session and subsequent PWLB fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.