PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB rates rose 3–4bp across the curve at the PM fix, driven by ongoing gilt weakness amid global market turmoil and surging energy prices.
PWLB PM rates reset higher at 12:31, with a uniform 4bp move up across most tenors as market volatility persists.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.20% (+3bp)
- → 3y — 5.33% (+4bp)
- → 5y — 5.46% (+4bp)
- → 10y — 5.92% (+4bp)
- → 25y — 6.49% (+4bp)
- → 50y — 6.29% (+4bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Broad-based upward shift — 3–4bp increases across all reported maturities, with no part of the curve spared.
- → No single maturity stands out — Moves are consistent from short to ultra-long, reflecting a parallel shift.
CONTEXT
- → Market volatility persists — Global risk assets are under pressure after President Trump’s address signalled further escalation in the Iran conflict, sending oil prices up over 7% and driving renewed inflation concerns.
- → Gilts and global bonds sold off — Newswires report falling gilt and Treasury prices as investors price in higher inflation risk and energy-driven uncertainty.
- → No UK data released yet today — Calendar is empty so far; moves are entirely market-driven.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 12:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims (forecast: 212K)
- → Tomorrow 12:30 — USD Non-Farm Payrolls (forecast: 60K) and Unemployment Rate (forecast: 4.4%)
Rates are moving briskly in step with global market nerves—expect volatility to persist as the macro picture remains unsettled.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for calm, you might want to put the kettle on.