PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up sharply across the curve (+6–8bp), driven by renewed global risk aversion and surging oil prices after US escalation threats on Iran.
Gilt yields are up notably this morning; expect a material upward reset in PWLB rates at 12:30.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.380% (+8bp) — Front end leads, reflecting risk-off and inflation concerns.
- → 10y: 4.899% (+7bp) — Belly firmer, mirroring global bond sell-off.
- → 30y: 5.522% (+6bp) — Long end higher, but slightly lagging the front.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- →1y: predicted 5.18% (+1bp from current)
- →5y: predicted 5.43% (+1bp from current)
- →10y: predicted 5.89% (+1bp from current)
- →20y: predicted 6.41% (+2bp from current)
- →30y: predicted 6.49% (+2bp from current)
- →50y: predicted 6.27% (+2bp from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → Oil prices have surged over 7% after President Trump threatened further escalation in Iran, fuelling inflation concerns and a global risk-off move.
- → UK and global equity markets are under pressure, with investors seeking safety and repricing rate expectations.
- → News flow is dominated by Middle East conflict and energy supply risks, with no major UK data releases this morning.
CALENDAR
Releases so far today
No data released so far today.
Still due today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 hours
Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.
Markets are firmly risk-off and volatility remains elevated; keep a close eye on further geopolitical headlines into the afternoon.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you want certainty, try cricket. For gilts, keep your eye on the ball.