PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

8 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilts are sharply lower across the curve (-16bp to -24bp), driven by a global relief rally after the US-Iran ceasefire; expect a significant downward reset at 12:30.

Gilt yields have dropped hard this morning; PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset are set to fall sharply in line.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.178% (-24bp) — Front end plunges on risk relief.
→ 10y: 4.710% (-20bp) — Belly follows, matching scale of move.
→ 30y: 5.348% (-17bp) — Long end lower, but slightly less extreme.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.04% (+4bp) from current
→ 5y: predicted 5.26% (+2bp) from current
→ 10y: predicted 5.71% (unch) from current
→ 20y: predicted 6.24% (unch) from current
→ 30y: predicted 6.32% (unch) from current
→ 50y: predicted 6.10% (unch) from current

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ US-Iran ceasefire triggers global risk rally — Multiple sources confirm a two-week ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a sharp drop in oil prices, driving yields lower across global bonds.
→ UK data not a factor — This morning's Halifax House Price Index and Construction PMI were mixed, but not material to today's gilt move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Halifax House Price Index (MoM) — Actual: -0.50% vs Forecast: 0.20% vs Previous: 0.30% (MEDIUM) — Below expectations; signals softer housing but not a major gilt driver.
→ Halifax House Price Index (YoY) — Actual: 0.80% vs Forecast: 1.50% vs Previous: 1.20% (MEDIUM) — Also below forecast; limited direct impact.
→ S&P Global Construction PMI — Actual: 45.6 vs Forecast: 43.6 vs Previous: 44.5 (MEDIUM) — Slightly above forecast; not moving gilts today.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 14:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories — Forecast: -1M — Unlikely to affect gilts before 12:30 reset.
→ 17:00 — USD 10-Year Note Auction — Previous: 4.22% — After reset.
→ 18:00 — USD FOMC Meeting Minutes — After reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Thu 12:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) — Forecast: 0.40%
→ Thu 12:30 — USD GDP (QoQ) — Forecast: 0.70%
→ Fri 12:30 — USD CPI (MoM) — Forecast: 1.0%
→ Fri 12:30 — USD Core CPI (MoM) — Forecast: 0.30%
→ Fri 12:30 — USD CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.40%

Markets have moved decisively on the ceasefire news; expect a material drop in PWLB rates at the next reset barring a sharp reversal.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every reset were this straightforward.