PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have dropped sharply across the curve after the AM reset, with double-digit declines at every maturity as markets react to the US-Iran ceasefire and plunging oil prices.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — PWLB AM rates reset 12–20bp lower across the curve, driven by a global bond rally following the US-Iran ceasefire and a sharp fall in oil prices.
Ceasefire Triggers Double-Digit PWLB Drop — Oil Crash and Risk Rally Drive Rates Down
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.00% | -18bp |
| 3y | 5.11% | -19bp |
| 5y | 5.24% | -18bp |
| 10y | 5.71% | -15bp |
| 25y | 6.31% | -12bp |
| 50y | 6.10% | -13bp |
Parallel shift lower across the curve, with the largest moves at the short and medium tenors.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 7y maturities fell 17–20bp, leading the move lower.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates dropped 12–13bp, slightly less than the short end but still a substantial move.
- → Parallel shift — The entire curve reset lower, with no significant steepening or flattening.
CONTEXT
- → US-Iran ceasefire triggers global rally — News of a two-week ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down nearly 15% and sparked a surge in global bond markets.
- → Halifax House Prices (Mar) — -0.5% m/m (forecast: +0.1%, prev: +0.3%), 0.8% y/y (forecast: 1.5%, prev: 1.2%). Both below expectations, but overshadowed by global events.
- → Risk assets surge — Equities and credit rallied worldwide as energy supply fears eased, reinforcing the downward move in yields.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Halifax House Prices MM (Mar): -0.5% (forecast: +0.1%, prev: +0.3%) — weaker than expected, but not the main driver today.
- → Halifax House Prices YY (Mar): 0.8% (forecast: 1.5%, prev: 1.2%) — below forecast, minor local impact.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 2026-04-09 12:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 210K
- → Fri 2026-04-10 12:30: USD CPI MM, SA — Forecast: 0.9%
- → Fri 2026-04-10 12:30: USD CPI YY, NSA — Forecast: 3.3%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning’s PWLB reset delivered a 12–20bp drop across all maturities, with the short and medium tenors leading the move. The shift is driven by a global bond rally after the US-Iran ceasefire and a sharp fall in oil prices. If you are monitoring live gilt yields, remember that the next PWLB fix will only reflect further market moves at the midday reset. For now, the window is open at meaningfully lower levels than yesterday.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing falling faster than oil is your coffee temperature.