PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest upward move across the curve, with 2–3bp gains at most key tenors.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:16 PM reset are up 2–3bp across most maturities; little changed in the front end.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.08% (unch)
- → 3y — 5.19% (+2bp)
- → 5y — 5.31% (+2bp)
- → 10y — 5.78% (+2bp)
- → 25y — 6.37% (+3bp)
- → 50y — 6.17% (+3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild upward shift — 2bp increases in the 3–15y sector, with 3bp gains at 25y and 50y.
- → Front end steady — 1y unchanged; 2y up just +1bp.
CONTEXT
- → Middle East risk premium persists — Oil prices remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz stays largely blocked and ceasefire doubts linger; several outlets highlight ongoing supply concerns and fragile sentiment.
- → UK data quiet — No major UK releases since the morning; RICS Housing Survey showed further weakness overnight, but no fresh domestic drivers at midday.
- → Global backdrop — Market commentary remains focused on energy markets, with US CPI due tomorrow and ongoing volatility in equities and commodities.
LOOK AHEAD
- → US data this afternoon — 12:30: Initial Jobless Claims (forecast: 210K), US GDP Final (forecast: 0.7%); both may influence global risk sentiment.
- → US CPI tomorrow — 12:30: CPI MM, SA (forecast: 0.9%), CPI YY, NSA (forecast: 3.3%)—key for global rates direction.
Curve edges higher into the US data, with energy and geopolitical risk still front and centre.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you want certainty, try the weather forecast instead.