PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

9 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up sharply across the curve (+6–7bp), with Middle East tensions and energy market disruption in focus.

Gilt yields are up 6–7bp at all key tenors; expect a notable upward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.247% (+7bp) — Front-end up in line with curve.
→ 10y: 4.776% (+7bp) — Belly rises in step with short end.
→ 30y: 5.418% (+6bp) — Long end firmer, but slightly lagging.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.11% (+7bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.32% (+8bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.78% (+8bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.32% (+10bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.40% (+9bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.18% (+9bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ Middle East tensions remain elevated, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely blocked and oil prices rebounding.
→ UK mortgage rates ticked up (Actual: 6.60%, Previous: 6.59%) — adds to upward pressure on funding costs.
→ News flow dominated by energy supply disruption, fragile ceasefire, and risk of renewed inflation.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Mortgage Rate — Actual: 6.60% vs Forecast: n/a vs Previous: 6.59% — (MEDIUM) — Slight uptick, signals ongoing funding cost pressure.
→ BOE Credit Conditions Survey — (MEDIUM) — Monitors lending appetite; no market-moving surprise flagged.
→ Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI — Actual: 43.3 vs Previous: 46 — (LOW) — Consumer sentiment weaker, but not a direct gilt driver.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 12:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY), GDP, Initial Jobless Claims — could influence global rates, but main impact likely after PWLB reset.
→ 17:00 — USD 30-Year Bond Auction — not expected to affect PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Fri 12:30 — USD CPI (MoM/YoY), Core CPI — key for global inflation expectations.

A volatile morning for gilts; treasurers should expect a meaningful upward shift in PWLB rates at the midday fix.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the gilts need a strong cup of tea on mornings like this.