PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

16 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve; expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.176% (-5bp) — Front-end leading the move lower.
→ 10y: 4.796% (-2bp) — Belly slightly softer.
→ 30y: 5.482% (unch) — Long end steady.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.01% (-3bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.29% (-2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.79% (-2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.33% (-2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.43% (-2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.19% (-2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK GDP (MoM) beat — 0.50% actual vs 0.10% forecast (prev 0.10%), but gilts are lower, suggesting other factors are at play.
→ Eurozone CPI — 2.6% actual vs 2.5% forecast (prev 1.9%), slightly above expectations, but little impact on UK curve.
→ No single clear driver — Newsflow is dominated by Middle East conflict and energy market headlines, but no direct link to today's modest gilt rally.

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ GDP (MoM) — 0.50% vs 0.10% vs 0.10% (HIGH) — Strong beat, typically bearish for gilts.
→ Manufacturing Production (MoM) — -0.10% vs 0.30% vs 0.20% (MEDIUM) — Slight miss, modestly supportive for gilts.
→ Industrial Production (MoM) — 0.50% vs 0.30% vs -0.10% (MEDIUM) — Beat, but not moving the market.
→ Eurozone CPI (YoY) — 2.60% vs 2.50% vs 1.90% (HIGH) — Slightly above forecast, limited UK impact.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 12:00 — NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — Forecast not provided — unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.
→ 13:30 — USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — Forecast: 10.3 — may influence global risk sentiment, but not directly relevant for PWLB reset.
→ 13:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 213K — not likely to affect gilts before 12:30.
→ 16:40 — BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks — after the reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Tomorrow 20:30 — GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions (MEDIUM)

Curve is drifting gently lower, with no single catalyst; keep an eye on any geopolitical headlines, but for now, the reset looks set for a minor downward nudge.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every reset were this straightforward.