PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have nudged higher at the long end, with 25–50 year maturities up 3bp, while shorter tenors are little changed.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: modest steepening, long-dated PWLB rates up 3bp, short end flat to -1bp; curve moves reflect a firmer long gilt market after UK GDP data.
Long End Lifts as Growth Surprises, PWLB Steepens
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.04% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.16% | -1bp |
| 5y | 5.31% | +1bp |
| 10y | 5.81% | +2bp |
| 25y | 6.43% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.21% | +3bp |
Curve steepening: long end up 3bp, short end flat to slightly lower.
What Moved
- → Long end firmer — 25y and 50y rates rose 3bp, leading the move.
- → Short end steady to down — 1y and 3y both down 1bp, 5y up just 1bp.
- → Curve steepening — Modest divergence between short and long maturities.
Context
- → UK GDP (MoM) surprised to the upside — Actual: +0.50% (Forecast: +0.10%, Previous: +0.10%), supporting firmer gilt yields.
- → News flow focused on UK growth and Middle East risks — Headlines highlight stronger UK data and ongoing energy market uncertainty.
- → No major macro shocks overnight — Market moves are orderly, with data the main catalyst.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GDP (MoM): Actual 0.50%, Forecast 0.10%, Previous 0.10% — Stronger than expected, supporting upward pressure on gilt yields.
- → Manufacturing Production (MoM): Actual -0.10%, Forecast 0.30%, Previous 0.20% — Slightly weaker, but overshadowed by GDP.
- → Industrial Production (MoM): Actual 0.50%, Forecast 0.30%, Previous -0.10% — Above forecast, adding to the positive growth picture.
Remaining Today
- → 10:00 EUR CPI (YoY): Forecast 2.50% (Previous: 1.90%)
- → 13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Forecast 10.3 (Previous: 18.1)
- → 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 213K (Previous: 219K)
- → 16:40 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 17 Apr 13:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 213K
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has steepened modestly, with long-dated rates up 3bp while the short end is flat to slightly lower. This move follows a stronger-than-expected UK GDP print, which has pushed gilt yields higher at the long end. If you are watching for the next reset, focus on how the market digests today's growth data and any further macro surprises. As always, the window between resets is where live gilt moves may offer tactical opportunities.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council's IT password policy.