Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are notably higher this morning; expect a higher PWLB reset at 12:30 if current levels persist.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.151% (+4bp) — Front end firmer, reflecting risk-off tone.
• → 10y: 4.806% (+5bp) — Belly up, mirroring global risk aversion.
• → 30y: 5.530% (+5bp) — Long end also up, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.98% (-1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.27% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.81% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.38% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.48% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → Renewed Middle East tensions — Oil prices have surged after the US seized an Iranian ship and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, driving risk-off moves and higher yields.
• → Inflation concerns — Newswires highlight expectations for a jump in UK inflation due to higher fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict.
• → No UK data surprises — No high or medium impact UK releases so far today; moves are headline-driven.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

No high or medium impact UK data released so far today.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Tue 07:00 — GBP Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.20%
• → Wed 07:00 — GBP CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.30%
• → Tue 13:30 — USD Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.40%

Geopolitical risk is firmly in the driving seat today; keep an eye on the PM reset if volatility persists.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you want certainty, try arithmetic, not geopolitics.