PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with a modest 2–4bp drop across the curve as markets digest renewed geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates down 2–4bp across all key maturities, reflecting softer gilt yields amid heightened Middle East risk.
PWLB slips as oil and risk-off mood push gilts lower
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.99% | -4bp |
| 3y | 5.13% | -4bp |
| 5y | 5.28% | -4bp |
| 10y | 5.82% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.47% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.27% | -1bp |
Mild parallel shift lower, with slightly larger moves at the short and medium end.
What moved
- → Front and belly — 1y to 7y tenors down 3–4bp, reflecting the main move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y down 2bp and 1bp respectively, lagging the front.
Context
- → Middle East tensions escalate — Oil and gas prices surged after the US seized an Iranian ship, with risk-off sentiment supporting gilts.
- → UK data calendar quiet — No significant UK macro releases so far; Rightmove house price data (low impact) unchanged at +0.8% MoM.
- → Global risk aversion — Equity futures and emerging market FX weaker; safe-haven flows into government bonds evident across major markets.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Rightmove House Price Index (MoM): +0.8% actual (prev: +0.8%) — low impact, no surprise for gilts.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 21 Apr 07:00: GBP CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.30%
- → Tue 21 Apr 13:30: USD Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.40%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 2–4bp lower across the curve this morning, with the front and belly leading the move. This reflects a risk-off tone as markets react to renewed Middle East tensions and surging energy prices. With no major UK data due today, attention will turn to tomorrow's CPI release for the next potential catalyst. If gilt yields rebound before the PM reset, the current window may be short-lived.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council IT department.