PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest curve flattening at the PWLB PM reset: short rates up by 1–3bp, long end down by 2bp.
PWLB fixed rates at 12:10 show a mild flattening, with front-end yields ticking higher and longer maturities edging lower.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.05% (+2bp)
- → 3y: 5.18% (+2bp)
- → 5y: 5.33% (+1bp)
- → 10y: 5.85% (unch)
- → 25y: 6.48% (-2bp)
- → 50y: 6.28% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end firmer — 1–3y rates up by 2–3bp, 5y up by 1bp.
- → Long end softer — 15y and beyond down 1–2bp, with 25y and 50y both -2bp.
- → 10y unchanged — No move at the 10y point.
CONTEXT
- → UK jobs data — Unemployment fell to 4.9% (vs 5.2% forecast), wage growth slowed to 3.8%, and employment change was positive but below previous levels.
- → Market tone — News flow highlights ongoing macro uncertainty, with UK wage growth at a five-year low and continued scrutiny on government finances.
- → No single clear driver — Moves reflect a mix of softer long-end sentiment and firmer short rates, but no dominant catalyst stands out.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) — High impact; forecast 1.40%.
- → Tomorrow 07:00 GBP CPI (YoY) — High impact; forecast 3.30%.
- → Tomorrow 07:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) — Medium impact; forecast 2.80%.
Curve action today is modest, with the market awaiting inflation data and US retail sales for the next steer.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of the world reset twice a day.