PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

21 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly higher at the front end, flat to slightly lower further out; expect a small upward adjustment in short PWLB rates at 12:30.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 1y: 4.176% (+4bp) — Modest front-end rise.
→ 10y: 4.837% (+1bp) — Belly broadly steady.
→ 30y: 5.548% (-2bp) — Long end slightly softer.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.06% (+3bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.34% (+2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.86% (+1bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.42% (unch from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.52% (unch from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.29% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK jobs data mixed — Unemployment fell to 4.9% (vs 5.2% forecast), but claimant count and wage growth both softened; overall, not a strong directional push for gilts.
→ No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Employment Change 3M/3M — Actual: 25K vs Forecast: n/a vs Previous: 84K — (MEDIUM) — Slower jobs growth, but not a major surprise for gilts.
→ Average Earnings Index +Bonus — Actual: 3.80% vs Forecast: 3.60% vs Previous: 4.10% — (MEDIUM) — Wage growth slowed, but slightly above expectations; not a strong inflation signal.
→ Unemployment Rate — Actual: 4.90% vs Forecast: 5.20% vs Previous: 5.20% — (MEDIUM) — Unemployment fell more than expected, but with other softening indicators.
→ Claimant Count Change — Actual: 26.8K vs Forecast: 21.4K vs Previous: 17.1K — (MEDIUM) — Higher claimant count hints at some underlying softness.
→ Average Earnings ex Bonus — Actual: 3.60% vs Forecast: 3.50% vs Previous: 3.80% — (LOW) — Wage growth ex bonus continues to slow.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:30 — USD Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.40% — Could influence global rates, but unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.
→ 13:30 — USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.30% — Post-reset for PWLB, so not directly relevant.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Tomorrow 07:00 — GBP CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.30%

No surprises from gilts or data so far; expect a routine, slightly firmer PM reset for short PWLB tenors.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this straightforward.