PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with a uniform +2 to +3bp move across the curve following firmer UK labour market data.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates rose by 2–3bp across all maturities, reflecting stronger-than-expected UK jobs data.
PWLB edges up as UK jobs data surprises, curve shifts in lockstep
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.03% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.16% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.32% | +3bp |
| 10y | 5.85% | +2bp |
| 25y | 6.50% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.30% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift: +2 to +3bp across the curve.
What Moved
- → Uniform rise — All key maturities moved up by 2–3bp, with no material divergence along the curve.
Context
- → UK labour market data — Unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (actual, forecast 5.2%, previous 5.2%), and Average Earnings Index +Bonus came in at 3.8% (actual, forecast 3.6%, previous 4.1%), both firmer than expected.
- → News flow — Market commentary highlights a surprise drop in UK unemployment and continued macro uncertainty, but no single dominant headline driving rates this morning.
- → No major shocks — Broader news and calendar are light on direct gilt market drivers beyond today's jobs data.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK Unemployment Rate — 4.9% actual (forecast 5.2%, previous 5.2%): below expectations, supporting higher yields.
- → Average Earnings Index +Bonus — 3.8% actual (forecast 3.6%, previous 4.1%): slightly above forecast, but easing from previous.
- → Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) — 25K actual (previous 84K): lower than previous, but not a primary driver today.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.40% (previous: 0.60%)
- → 13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: 1.30% (previous: 0.50%)
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 22 Apr 07:00: UK CPI (YoY) — Forecast: 3.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged up 2–3bp across all maturities at the AM reset, following firmer-than-expected UK jobs data. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that the curve is moving in parallel and there is no material divergence between short and long tenors. The next key data point is UK CPI tomorrow morning, which may set the tone for the next fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council's budget spreadsheet.