Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.267% (-1bp) — Front-end fractionally lower.
• → 10y: 4.873% (-1bp) — Belly marginally softer.
• → 30y: 5.571% (-3bp) — Long end edges down slightly.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.10% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.37% (+1bp)
• → 10y: predicted 5.88% (unch)
• → 20y: predicted 6.43% (unch)
• → 30y: predicted 6.53% (unch)
• → 50y: predicted 6.30% (-1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → CPI (YoY) — Actual: 3.30% vs Forecast: 3.30% vs Previous: 3.0% — (HIGH) — In line with expectations, but marks a notable monthly rise; keeps inflation in focus for gilts.
• → CPI (MoM) — Actual: 0.70% vs Forecast: 0.60% vs Previous: 0.40% — (MEDIUM) — Slightly above forecast; signals ongoing price pressures.
• → PPI Input (MoM) — Actual: 4.40% vs Forecast: 2.80% vs Previous: 0.90% — (MEDIUM) — Input costs jump sharply; could feed through to future inflation.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 15:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories — Forecast: -1M — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thu 13:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 212K
• → Thu 14:45 — USD S&P Global Services PMI — Forecast: 50.1
• → Thu 14:45 — USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 52.5

A steady morning for gilts; no surprises expected at the midday PWLB reset barring any late market developments.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only inflation forecasts were as reliable as the British weather report.