PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with a uniform 3–5bp rise across the curve as UK inflation data surprised to the upside.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 2–5bp across all maturities, led by a 5bp jump at the 1-year, after UK inflation and producer prices both exceeded expectations.
Inflation surprise sends PWLB rates up 2–5bp across the curve
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.10% | +5bp |
| 3y | 5.21% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.36% | +3bp |
| 10y | 5.88% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.51% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.31% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift across the curve, with the front-end (1y) leading at +5bp.
What Moved
- → Front-end leads — 1-year rate up +5bp, rest of curve up +3bp, reflecting sensitivity to inflation data.
- → No material curve twist — Moves are broadly parallel, with no marked steepening or flattening.
Context
- → UK CPI (YoY) for March — Actual: 3.30% (Forecast: 3.30%, Previous: 3.0%). The jump to 3.3% marks a sharp acceleration, with fuel prices cited as the main driver.
- → PPI Input (MoM) — Actual: 4.40% (Forecast: 2.80%, Previous: 0.90%). Producer input prices surged, adding to inflation concerns.
- → News flow — UK inflation and energy price headlines dominate; no other macro drivers evident.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → CPI (YoY) — Actual: 3.30% (Forecast: 3.30%, Previous: 3.0%). Above previous, in line with forecast, but the jump is notable for markets.
- → PPI Input (MoM) — Actual: 4.40% (Forecast: 2.80%, Previous: 0.90%). Well above forecast, adding to upward pressure on yields.
- → CPI (MoM) — Actual: 0.70% (Forecast: 0.60%, Previous: 0.40%). Slightly above expectations.
Remaining Today
- → 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories — Forecast: -1M (Previous: -0.913M). Oil volatility remains a background risk for rates.
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 23 Apr 13:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 212K
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has shifted up 2–5bp at the morning reset, with the 1-year rate posting the largest move (+5bp) after UK inflation and producer prices both came in hot. This is a parallel move, not a twist—so all maturities are affected. If you are monitoring for the next reset, keep an eye on intraday gilt moves and any further energy price developments. No sign of curve dislocation—just a straightforward inflation-driven repricing.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more inflation surprises than I care to count.