PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

23 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up across the curve (+2–6bp), with the largest moves at the long end, as energy market disruption and strong UK PMI data drive a notable upward reset risk.

Gilts are firmer across all key tenors; expect a meaningful upward shift in PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.374% (+5bp) — Front end firmer, short rates up.
→ 10y: 4.954% (+4bp) — Belly higher, matching broader curve move.
→ 30y: 5.628% (+5bp) — Long end up, matching front-end pace.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.22% (+5bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.48% (+5bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.97% (+5bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.49% (+3bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.58% (+3bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.36% (+3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK PMI data beats — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.6 (forecast 50.3, prev 51) and Services PMI 52 (forecast 50, prev 50.5) both above expectations, signalling stronger activity and likely supporting yields.
→ Energy market disruption — News flow highlights ongoing Middle East conflict, $100+ oil, and supply chain concerns, all contributing to upward pressure on yields.
→ Public sector borrowing — March net borrowing at £12.6bn (forecast £10.4bn, prev -£12.8bn), above forecast, adding to the backdrop of fiscal strain.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — 53.6 vs 50.3 vs 51 (MEDIUM) — Strong beat, signals robust activity, positive for yields.
→ S&P Global Services PMI — 52 vs 50 vs 50.5 (MEDIUM) — Above forecast, points to resilient services sector, yield-supportive.
→ S&P Global Composite PMI — 52 vs 49.8 vs 50.3 (MEDIUM) — Composite strength, underpins the move higher in rates.
→ Public Sector Net Borrowing — £12.6bn vs £10.4bn vs -£12.8bn (MEDIUM) — Above forecast, adds to fiscal pressure.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 211K — Unlikely to affect 12:30 reset.
→ 14:45 — USD S&P Global Services/Manufacturing PMI — Forecasts: 50.5 / 52.5 — After reset, not relevant for today’s fix.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Retail Sales (MoM) — Forecast: +0.10%

A busy morning for UK data and ongoing energy market stress are keeping rates on the move; stay alert for further volatility into the afternoon.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as predictable as the 12:30 reset.