PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset this morning with a notable upward move across the curve, led by the short and medium tenors.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: 5–6bp rise at the front end, 2–4bp higher further out, as UK data surprises to the upside and Middle East tensions keep pressure on yields.
PWLB reset jumps as UK data and global risks drive yields higher
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.17% | +6bp |
| 3y | 5.29% | +6bp |
| 5y | 5.43% | +5bp |
| 10y | 5.92% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.54% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.33% | +2bp |
Parallel upward shift, most pronounced at the short and medium end.
What Moved
- → Front end leads — 1y and 3y rates up +6bp, 5y +5bp, reflecting sensitivity to UK macro data and global risk.
- → Long end firmer — 25y and 50y up +3bp and +2bp, less pronounced but still higher.
- → Curve steepens slightly — Shorter maturities rise more than the long end.
Context
- → UK PMI data beats expectations — Services PMI 52 (forecast 50, prev 50.5), Manufacturing PMI 53.6 (forecast 50.3, prev 51), Composite PMI 52 (forecast 49.8, prev 50.3); all above forecast, signalling stronger activity.
- → Middle East tensions persist — Ongoing conflict and Hormuz disruption keep oil above $100 and maintain upward pressure on global yields.
- → UK public sector borrowing — March borrowing at £12.6bn (forecast £10.4bn, prev £14.3bn), above expectations, but not the primary driver today.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → S&P Global Services PMI: 52 (forecast 50, prev 50.5) — Stronger than expected, supporting higher yields.
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.6 (forecast 50.3, prev 51) — Well above forecast, adds to upward pressure.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI: 52 (forecast 49.8, prev 50.3) — Also above expectations.
- → Public Sector Net Borrowing: £12.6bn (forecast £10.4bn, prev £14.3bn) — Above forecast, but overshadowed by PMI data.
Remaining Today
- → 11:00: CBI Industrial Trends Orders — Forecast: -34
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 23 Apr 13:30: US Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 211K
- → Thu 23 Apr 14:45: US S&P Global Services PMI — Forecast: 50.5
- → Thu 23 Apr 14:45: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 52.5
⚑ Treasurer's Note — Notable upward reset this morning: short and medium PWLB rates are up +5–6bp, with the long end +2–3bp. The move is driven by stronger-than-expected UK PMI data and persistent global risk premium from Middle East tensions. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that live gilt yields may continue to react to further data and headlines before the PM fix. Monitor the window closely if you have near-term funding needs.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving faster than rates is the rumour mill.