PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have jumped 5–8bp across the curve at the AM reset, with the 10y now above 6% and the long end at fresh highs; the move is broad and driven by surging global yields amid escalating Middle East tensions.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates up 5–8bp across all maturities, led by a sharp global bond sell-off as oil spikes on Iran war escalation.
PWLB rates surge as oil and war fears drive global bond yields higher
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.37% | +8bp |
| 3y | 5.51% | +8bp |
| 5y | 5.63% | +7bp |
| 10y | 6.09% | +6bp |
| 25y | 6.67% | +5bp |
| 50y | 6.47% | +5bp |
Parallel upward shift: front end and belly lead, but long end also at new highs.
What Moved
- → Front end and belly surge — 1y and 3y up +8bp, 5y +7bp, reflecting acute sensitivity to global rate shocks.
- → Long end not spared — 25y and 50y both up +5bp, with 50y now at 6.47%, highest since the start of the Iran conflict.
- → Curve remains steep — No flattening; the move is a broad parallel jump.
Context
- → Oil prices rocket — Brent crude surged above $126/bbl (+13% in 24h) as US-Iran tensions escalate, driving global inflation and bond yields higher.
- → European inflation surprises — 07:45 EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel: 2.20% (forecast 2.0%, prev 1.70%), above expectations, adding to rate pressure.
- → Bank of England decision due 12:00 — Market expects no change (forecast 3.75%), but focus is on hawkish tone and vote split.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GBP Car Production YoY: -0.80% (forecast 4.40%, prev -11%) — below expectations, but not a major driver for gilts.
Remaining Today
- → 12:00: BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → 13:15: ECB Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 2.15%
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 1 May 15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53
- → Fri 1 May 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 95K
- → Fri 1 May 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have surged 5–8bp at the AM reset, with the 10y now at 6.09% and the 50y at 6.47%. This is a broad, parallel upward move across the curve, driven by a sharp global bond sell-off as oil prices spike on Middle East escalation. The front end and belly are leading, but the long end is also at new highs. If you are considering a transaction, be aware that the next reset will reflect any further market volatility.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every "temporary" oil shock since 2006.