PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

30 April 2026 · 11:29 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve (-3 to -4bp); expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Yields are down 3–4bp at all key tenors so far today; PWLB rates are set to edge lower at the next reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.513% (-3bp) — Front end slightly firmer.
→ 10y: 5.030% (-4bp) — Belly leads the move lower.
→ 30y: 5.685% (-4bp) — Long end follows, parallel shift.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.34% (-3bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.60% (-3bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 6.05% (-4bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.58% (-3bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.66% (-3bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.44% (-3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ European inflation data came in above forecast (e.g. 10:00 EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash: 3.0% vs 2.9% f/c), but gilts are firmer, suggesting other factors at play.
→ Newsflow dominated by oil price surge and Middle East tensions, but no direct UK data driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ 00:01 GBP Car Production YoY — Actual: -0.80% vs Forecast: 4.40% vs Previous: -11% (LOW) — Weak, but low impact for gilts.

Still due today

→ 12:00 — GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75% — Key for the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Next 48 hours

→ Fri 15:00 — USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53
→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Forecast: -0.30%
→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Forecast: 2.20%

A modest parallel rally so far, with the BoE decision at noon the main event for the reset ahead.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every day’s move were this straightforward.