PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed this morning, with movements of just 0–3bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB AM reset: rates broadly steady, with minor moves of -3bp to +3bp and no clear directional bias.
PWLB: Flat as a pancake, with barely a ripple
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.29% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.43% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.57% | -1bp |
| 10y | 6.05% | unch |
| 25y | 6.65% | +2bp |
| 50y | 6.45% | +2bp |
Curve shows a negligible parallel move; no material steepening or flattening.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → Nationwide house prices (Apr): +0.4% m/m (forecast: -0.3%, prev: +0.9%), +3.0% y/y (forecast: 2.2%, prev: 2.2%). Both above expectations, but no discernible impact on gilts.
- → Mortgage approvals: 63.5k (forecast: 60k, prev: 62.7k). Slightly stronger than forecast, but not market-moving.
- → News flow: No major UK macro or gilt-specific developments this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM: Actual +0.40% (Forecast: -0.30%, Previous: +0.90%) — stronger than expected, but no reaction in gilts.
- → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY: Actual +3.0% (Forecast: 2.20%, Previous: 2.20%) — above forecast, no impact on rates.
- → Mortgage Approvals: Actual 63.5k (Forecast: 60k, Previous: 62.7k) — marginally firmer, not market-moving.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 53
- → 13:15 GBP BoE Pill Speech
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 03 May 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 73K
- → Fri 03 May 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
- → Fri 03 May 15:00: USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 50
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are essentially unchanged at the AM reset, with minor moves of -3bp to +3bp and no clear trend. Market conditions remain calm, with no significant data or news flow driving gilts this morning. Next scheduled risk is the US payrolls release tomorrow, but for now, the window is steady.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — keeping it flatter than a pancake since the days of decimalisation.