PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields declined across the curve today, leading to a parallel fall in PWLB rates at all maturities.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 1y: 4.331% (-10bp) — front-end led the decline.
- → 5y: 4.523% (-8bp) — short and intermediate yields fell notably.
- → 10y: 5.016% (-7bp) — declines extended into the belly.
- → 30y: 5.697% (-3bp) — long-end also lower, but less pronounced.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.32% | -5bp |
| 5y | 5.58% | -5bp |
| 10y | 6.05% | -4bp |
| 25y | 6.63% | -4bp |
| 50y | 6.43% | -4bp |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
The main event was the Bank of England’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% (Actual: 3.75%, Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%), with an 8-1 vote to keep rates unchanged. Governor Bailey highlighted that inflation is expected to rise to “a little over 3.5% by the end of the year” due to the Middle East conflict, but described current policy as “a reasonable place.” UK bonds rallied after the announcement as traders pared back expectations for further near-term rate hikes. No other UK data releases today had a material impact on the gilt market. Broader risk sentiment was also influenced by falling oil prices after recent highs, and the ECB likewise held rates steady, but the dominant driver for gilts was the BoE outcome and associated guidance.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → PWLB rates ended the day 4–6bp lower across the curve, reducing borrowing costs for all standard maturities.
- → The decline was most pronounced at the short end, but all tenors saw meaningful moves.
- → Today’s moves reflect a market reassessment of near-term rate hike risks following the BoE’s decision and commentary.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Fri 07:00: Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Forecast: -0.30%)
- → Fri 07:00: Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Forecast: 2.20%)
- → Fri 09:30: BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals (Forecast: 60K), Mortgage Lending, M4 Money Supply, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Forecast: 53.6)
PWLB borrowing costs finished lower, with the market responding to the Bank of England’s steady policy stance and guidance.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.