PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB rates rose 2–4bp across the curve at the PM reset, with the largest move at 25y (+4bp); moves reflect ongoing upward pressure in long-dated gilts amid inflation concerns.
PWLB fixed rates at 12:30 saw modest increases of 2–4bp across all key maturities, with the 25-year tenor leading at +4bp; the curve remains elevated.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.32% (+2bp)
- → 3y: 5.47% (+3bp)
- → 5y: 5.61% (+3bp)
- → 10y: 6.09% (+3bp)
- → 25y: 6.69% (+4bp)
- → 50y: 6.48% (+3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Broad-based upward move — All key tenors rose 2–4bp, with the largest increase at 25y (+4bp).
- → Long end remains under pressure — 25y and 50y rates continue to print at multi-year highs.
CONTEXT
- → UK long-dated yields at 28-year highs — Newswires report 30y gilt yields at levels not seen since 1998, with inflation and further BoE rate hike expectations cited as drivers.
- → Strong UK car sales data — April new car sales surged 24% YoY (actual: 24%, forecast: 5.1%), indicating resilient consumer demand.
- → Oil and Middle East risk — Ongoing Iran conflict and oil price volatility continue to fuel inflation concerns, as highlighted in multiple news items.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 17:30 — BoE Woods Speech (MEDIUM)
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Composite PMI Final (LOW, forecast: 52)
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Services PMI Final (LOW, forecast: 52)
- → Tomorrow 10:00 — Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction (LOW)
Curve remains at cycle highs with upward momentum persisting; keep an eye on central bank commentary and inflation signals.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for the long end to blink, bring a sandwich.