Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are notably higher this morning, pointing to a higher PWLB reset at 12:30.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.492% (+9bp) — Front-end leads with a strong move higher.
• → 10y: 5.045% (+8bp) — Belly also up sharply.
• → 30y: 5.722% (+7bp) — Long end firmer, but slightly lagging the front.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.30% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.58% (unch)
• → 10y: predicted 6.07% (+1bp)
• → 20y: predicted 6.60% (+1bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.68% (+1bp)
• → 50y: predicted 6.44% (-1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → New Car Sales YoY — Actual: 24% vs Forecast: 5.10% vs Previous: 6.60% — (LOW) — Strong upside surprise, but low direct relevance for gilts.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 17:30 — BoE Woods Speech — (MEDIUM) — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thursday 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Construction PMI — Forecast: 46.2
• → Friday 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 60K
• → Friday 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%

A brisk move higher in gilts this morning—PWLB borrowers should expect a firmer reset at midday.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the curve needs a coffee after this morning's jump.