PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — PWLB rates fell sharply by 6–12bp across the curve at the PM fix, led by front-end moves, as global risk sentiment improved on reports of progress towards a US–Iran deal and a broad retreat in oil prices.
PWLB fixed rates reset lower at 12:31, with the 1y down 12bp and 10y down 8bp; the entire curve saw a marked drop as risk assets rallied and oil fell.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.13% (-12bp)
- → 3y — 5.29% (-11bp)
- → 5y — 5.44% (-10bp)
- → 10y — 5.93% (-8bp)
- → 25y — 6.55% (-6bp)
- → 50y — 6.35% (-6bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front-end leads the move — 1y and 2y rates fell by 12bp, with 3y down 11bp, marking the sharpest declines on the curve.
- → Belly and long end lower — 5y dropped 10bp, 10y by 8bp, and 25y/50y by 6bp, confirming a parallel shift lower.
CONTEXT
- → Risk sentiment improves — Multiple sources report oil prices slumping and global equities rallying on optimism around a possible US–Iran peace deal, easing recent geopolitical risk premia.
- → UK data benign — This morning’s S&P Global Services PMI (52.7, above forecast) and Composite PMI (52.6) both point to modest growth, but did not prevent the rates move.
- → No single domestic driver — The scale of the move reflects global factors, not a UK-specific shock.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Construction PMI (forecast: 45.7).
A sharp downward reset for PWLB rates this afternoon, with global headlines firmly in the driving seat.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — Sometimes the market just wants a reason to exhale. Today, it found one.