Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are down 11–16bp across all key tenors so far; PWLB rates are set to fall significantly at the PM reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.361% (-16bp) — Front end leads the move lower.
• → 10y: 4.931% (-13bp) — Belly follows, matching the downward shift.
• → 30y: 5.616% (-12bp) — Long end also materially lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.19% (-6bp)
• → 5y: predicted 5.48% (-6bp)
• → 10y: predicted 5.96% (-5bp)
• → 20y: predicted 6.49% (-5bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.59% (-4bp)
• → 50y: predicted 6.37% (-4bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs. Moves are broad-based with no standout economic release or news catalyst.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → S&P Global Composite PMI Final — Actual: 52.6 vs Forecast: 52 vs Previous: 50.3 — (MEDIUM) — Above expectations; signals modestly stronger UK activity.
• → S&P Global Services PMI Final — Actual: 52.7 vs Forecast: 52 vs Previous: 50.5 — (MEDIUM) — Above expectations; points to some resilience in services.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Fri 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 60K
• → Fri 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
• → Fri 15:00 — USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 49.5

A sharp downward move in gilts will feed through to a meaningful drop in PWLB rates at the next reset; stay alert for further volatility around Friday's US data.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the curve needs a breather after a morning like this.