PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply lower this morning, with 7–8bp declines across the curve as markets react to easing geopolitical tensions and softer data.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB AM fix: broad-based 7–8bp drop, led by long-end, following a retreat in gilt yields as oil prices fall and risk sentiment improves.
PWLB rates tumble as markets unwind risk premium
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.25% | -7bp |
| 3y | 5.40% | -7bp |
| 5y | 5.54% | -7bp |
| 10y | 6.01% | -8bp |
| 25y | 6.61% | -8bp |
| 50y | 6.41% | -7bp |
Parallel downward shift of 7–8bp across the curve, led by the 10–25y sector.
WHAT MOVED
- → Long-end and belly — 10y, 20y, and 25y maturities fell 8bp, outpacing the 7bp drop at the short and ultra-long ends.
- → Broad-based rally — No part of the curve was spared; all key tenors reset lower.
CONTEXT
- → Oil prices retreat — Multiple sources report a sharp drop in oil as the US pauses military operations in the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation and risk concerns.
- → Risk sentiment improves — Global equities hit record highs as Middle East tensions de-escalate, supporting a rally in gilts.
- → UK PMIs surprise on the upside — S&P Global Services PMI at 52.7 (forecast 52, previous 50.5); Composite PMI at 52.6 (forecast 52, previous 50.3), but this has not offset the dominant global risk repricing.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → S&P Global Services PMI Final — Actual: 52.7 (Forecast: 52, Previous: 50.5). Slightly stronger than expected, but overshadowed by global market moves.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Final — Actual: 52.6 (Forecast: 52, Previous: 50.3). Also above forecast; limited market impact amid risk rally.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Fri 08 May 13:30: US Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 60K
- → Fri 08 May 13:30: US Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
- → Fri 08 May 15:00: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 49.5
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning’s AM reset delivered a sharp 7–8bp drop in PWLB rates across all key maturities, with the 10–25y sector leading the move. The single most important clause: this is a broad-based rally, not a curve twist, and reflects a global unwind of risk premium as oil prices and geopolitical tensions ease. If you have funding to execute, this window offers materially lower costs than yesterday’s fix. Monitor for further volatility around Friday’s US payrolls.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every “temporary” spike in the long end.