PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB fixed rates rose 2–4bp across the curve at the PM reset, with the largest move (+4bp) at 40 years, as gilt yields climbed amid renewed political and inflation concerns.
PWLB PM rates reset higher across all key maturities, with a uniform +3bp move at most tenors and a slightly larger +4bp at 40y; the backdrop is a sharp rise in gilt yields as markets react to UK political instability and global inflation risks.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.26% (+3bp)
- → 3y — 5.41% (+3bp)
- → 5y — 5.54% (+3bp)
- → 10y — 6.01% (+3bp)
- → 25y — 6.61% (+3bp)
- → 50y — 6.41% (+3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Broad upward shift — All key maturities up 2–4bp, with the largest move at 40y (+4bp).
- → Curve shape — The move is consistent across the curve, with no single segment standing out beyond the modestly larger long-end adjustment.
CONTEXT
- → Gilt yields climb — Newswires report a sharp rise in gilt yields as markets digest ongoing political uncertainty around Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership and heightened inflation concerns linked to the Middle East situation.
- → Sterling weakens — Sterling is reported weaker in response to the same political backdrop, adding to the risk-off tone.
- → No UK data released yet — No economic calendar releases so far today; moves are news-driven.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 15:00 — USD Existing Home Sales (HIGH), forecast 4.05M.
- → Tomorrow 00:01 — GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MEDIUM), forecast 0.80%.
- → Tomorrow 13:30 — USD Core/Headline Inflation Rate MoM/YoY (HIGH), forecasts: Core MoM 0.40%, Headline MoM 0.60%, Core YoY 2.60%, Headline YoY 3.40%.
A brisk start to the week, with rates up and markets on edge; stay alert for further volatility as the political and inflation narrative develops.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only council meetings moved as quickly as the long end today.